Sacramento State’s softball team qualified for the Big Sky tournament this weekend, but its chances of hosting this year’s championships in Sacramento diminished more than a week ago – increasing the difficulty of securing a title.

With the regular season in the books, Sac State has to focus on the post season and a possible birth to an NCAA Regional tournament.

The road to the NCAA Regional tournament will be a tough one for Sac State because they have to face Idaho State (28-21; 14-4 in conference) in the second game of the tournament.

The Big Sky tournament is a double elimination tournament, giving the teams two chances to get to the championship game. Once a team receives two losses, it is eliminated.

The tournament is broken down into two brackets: the loser bracket and the winner bracket. Whichever team comes from the loser bracket will have the tougher road than those from the winner bracket. 

It will be harder for any team to get through the loser bracket because each team has to play at least one more game than the one team that makes it to the championship game.

If the Hornets want to go deep in the team’s first conference tournament since joining the Division I ranks in 1990, their offense has to produce runs to help its pitching.

Sac State has to score runs early and often. It can’t wait until the fifth inning to score its first run. When the Hornets score in the first inning, their record is 6-3 and if they score more than six runs the record stands at 7-0.  

The Hornets arguably have the best pitching staff in the conference with ace sophomore pitcher Caitlin Brooks and No. 2 starter Taylor Stroud. Brooks leads the Big Sky in ERA and ranked 18th in the nation as of May 1 with a 1.41 ERA.

Brooks also ranks among the top 10 in the nation with 3.95 hits allowed per game – as well as eight shutouts this season. The most recent shutout win came against Idaho State on Saturday.

The offense has to help an already-solid one-two punch in Brooks and Stroud.  Lately, Stroud needs the extra offense; the team has produced no more than a run in her previous three starts against conference opponents.

However, Sac State still has a good shot in advancing to the championship game because every team is viewed as beatable in the competitive Big Sky Conference. Out of the three other teams in the tournament, none of them lost the series when facing Sac State.

Sac State’s record combined against the top four teams in conference is 3-6. Against Southern Utah and Portland State, the Hornets lost the final game in walk-off fashion to both teams.

Idaho State’s offense includes four hitters who lead the conference in home runs. If the Hornets can contain the power of the Bengals with Brooks and Stroud – and score more than six runs – they can beat Idaho State. 

Despite Southern Utah and Idaho State putting up impressive offensive numbers, the Thunderbirds are ranked third in BSC and Bengals are ranked first. However, they are considered the worst pitching teams out of the four in the tournament. Each team’s best pitchers have already allowed more than 100 runs this season.

I predict Sac State will make it to the finals after they defeat Portland State and Southern Utah, but I don’t see them overcoming the offense of the Idaho State Bengals.

 

Clifton can be reached on Twitter at @jonesSHsports