The California State University’s hopes to offset recently announced fee increases may not be realistic, according to the state’s non-partisan fiscal analyst.

The CSU plans to raise tuition 5 percent in January, and 10 percent next fall, but asked the state for $125 million to “buy out” the 10 percent increase in its next budget.

“Buyouts are not the most strategic investment of funds,” said Judy Heiman, principal analyst with the Legislative Analyst’s Office, which will make a recommendation on 2011-12 funding levels for the CSU.

Buyout funding would have to come over and above the state’s projected $25.4 billion budget shortfall for 2011-12, Heiman said.

“We’re not in the business of forecasting what will happen, but the budget looks bad. The Legislature and the governor are going to have their hands full. You can draw your own conclusions from that,” Heiman said.

The buyout is part of the CSU’s 2011-12 budget proposal adopted last month. The CSU is asking the state for a $379 million increase over this year’s funding.

If lawmakers can find $125 million for the buyout, the CSU will rescind the fall increase, said CSU spokesman Erik Fallis. The 5 percent increase will still be implemented in January.

The CSU has asked the state to buy out potential fee increases every year for the past decade, Fallis said. The state has twice provided the CSU its requested buyout &- in 2000-01 and 2006-07. In previous years, the CSU requested buyouts for fees it may have to increase. This is the first year the CSU adopted a fee increase, and then asked the state to cover the tab.

“We did it differently this year so students could plan for the increase,” Fallis said. “At the same time, we’re telling the state if they are able to identify the funds, then we’ll rescind the fee.”

State Sen. Leland Yee, D-San Francisco/Pacifica, who has been voted Legislator of the Year by the California Faculty Association, which represents 23,000 CSU faculty members, painted a dismal picture of the buyout’s prospects.

“I don’t think it’s very likely to happen,” said Yee’s Chief of Staff Adam Kegwin, noting that the 2010-11 state budget restored $199 million to the CSU, and provided an additional $60.6 million for enrollment growth. “To ask for even more money when every other agency is getting cut is not realistic. There’s nothing left in the budget &- we’re down to the bone.”

If the Legislative Analyst’s Office were to recommend against the buyout, lawmakers could still act on their own accord.

Assemblyman Ted Gaines, R-Roseville, stressed that the Legislative Analyst’s Office recommendations are not binding.

“We respect the LAO, but that doesn’t mean we agree,” Gaines said, adding it would be difficult to speculate on the success of the buyout. “We still have to take a look at additional efficiencies, and where money can come from.”

But CSU officials continue to be optimistic of the buyout, saying students can increase its chances by contacting their local representatives.

“When the public indicates that higher education is not adequately funded, we hope policy makers will prioritize,” Fallis said.

Gov. Jerry Brown, who will submit his budget plan in January, likely has the next word on the buyout. On his campaign website, Brown said he plans to increase funding for higher education by diverting prison funds.

Kegwin, while supporting the governor’s pitch, said it would present challenges.

“If he can find a way to redirect prison funds, great. But the problem is there are federal mandates that need to be filled,” Kegwin said.

In addition to the buyout, the CSU is requesting $64.8 million to allow a 2.5 percent increase in enrollment.

Fallis said the 2.5 percent increase would help bring enrollment levels back to where they were before the 2009 reductions, Fallis said.

“California is going to need a far higher level of college-educated workers,” Fallis said. “So the CSU would hope that we can continue to expand enrollment to meet the workforce demands of the state.”

Ken Paglia can be reached at [email protected].