It has been almost three years since Arnold Schwarzenegger was sworn in as the governor of California. Prior to his term, he spent his days making movies and making millions while Gray Davis continued to drive California into the financial toilet. The recall election brought a debate to campus and it’s back again this time around.

On Saturday, Schwarzenegger and his Democratic challenger, Phil Angelides, will debate in Capistrano Hall. Since students will not be allowed in without an invite (which is a whole other issue in itself) I’m going to tell you ahead of time who is going to win it — The Governator.

If you haven’t seen the polls in recent weeks, then you wouldn’t know that Schwarzenegger is making even more headway. According to a survey from the Public Policy Institute of California, Schwarzenegger is leading 48 percent to Angelides’ 31 percent, which is a four-point increase for Arnold since August. Every other poll shows the same increases for Schwarzenegger. And I think that after the debate, the numbers will continue to rise.

Here’s what they are going to say. Angelides is going to continue to say he will bring back all of the troops from California, a feat he cannot accomplish as governor because he wouldn’t have the actual power to do so. Angelides also has spent the past few weeks giving speeches and putting out ads that tie President Bush to the governor

“Angelides is promoting anti-war rallies to gain traction in the polls and to compensate for a failing campaign.” senior government/journalism major Curtis Grima said.

I’m assuming he feels the low polling rates for Bush will rub off on Schwarzenegger. And though all polls show that this is not working, I think he’s going to stick with this idea.

Yes, Schwarzenegger is Republican and yes, Bush is Republican, but not all Republicans think exactly the same and everyone seems to get that except for the Angelides camp. Schwarzenegger’s senior strategist, Matthew Dowd, summed it up by saying, “Every day they spend talking about Bush is a good day for us because we can talk about things Californians are focused on.”

As the debate takes place on a college campus, I think a major issue will be education.

On Sept. 28, Schwarzenegger signed Senate Bills 1209 and 1655 and he will use these bills to emphasize his commitment to education. SB 1209 addressed the fact that the state will lose 100,000 teachers – fully one-third of the workforce – over the next decade to retirement.

It improves compensation and teacher distribution, makes it easier for out-of-state teachers to seek California accreditation and improves new teacher and intern support with mentoring programs. SB 1655 helps schools to hire quality teachers in low-performing schools. Schwarzenegger will focus on what he has done while Angelides will have to focus on what he wishes to do. In one of his television ads, Angelides promises he is going to roll back college tuition and fees. As a college student yourself, do you really believe that he not only will, but can, do this? I sure don’t.

I don’t think that what either gentleman will say about policies will ultimately sway a lot of votes. However, I feel the presence and personality of Schwarzenegger is what is going to make him win this debate. Angelides has not been appealing in his appearances or his policies.

He’s a developer, which is not well-liked in the world of politics. I think it is hilarious that he only agreed to debate if they both stood, instead of sitting. It is an obvious fact that Angelides is tall and Schwarzenegger is shorter. But does he really feel the height difference will make him seem like a better governor?

Arnold has the personality to win the people over. He did it in the recall debate; don’t you remember his responses? Arianna Huffington kept talking about loopholes and Schwarzenegger responded by saying he could drive his Hummers through her personal tax loopholes. Or, in response to a personal attack by Huffington, he said that he had the perfect part for her in “Terminator 4”.

Just as the polls show, the people like Arnold. “Schwarzenegger appeals to Californians,” Grima said. “His agenda is in synch with what California really needs.” And that is ultimately why he will win the debate and, come November, his second term as governor.

Nicki Croly can be reached at [email protected]