BEST PICTURE

Who will win…

This year has the requisite drama (“The Hours”) and usual bang-up Holocaust flick (“The Pianist”) going up against Martin Scorcese’s latest opus (“Gangs of New York”) and the last true musical since “Grease.” “Chicago” has a stockpile of reasons to edge it out over fellow fresh choice “The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers,” but politics may have leveled the playing field. Even still, the glorious musical should tower over the rest (no pun intended).

Who should win…

Endearing is the word that comes to mind when recognizing “The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers” as a nominee in this category. It should be noted that as perfectly crafted as “Lord of the Rings” is, “Chicago” still deserves to take the night’s top honor. Dramas tend to become passe, so praise should be concentrated on these two big guns.

BEST ACTOR

Who will win…

Michael Caine is something of an overrated actor now, and neither Adrien Brody (“The Pianist”) nor Daniel Day-Lewis (“Gangs of New York”) can stand their ground versus Jack Nicholson sleep walking to brilliance in “About Schmidt.” Jack pulls the same shtick, but it’s just so damn good. On the other hand…

Who should win…

Nicolas Cage is the most amazing of the group by way of “Adaptation.” But if not for Caine and Brody taking up space, Leonardo DiCaprio (“Catch Me If You Can”) would get a pentultimately deserving nomination and Richard Gere (“Chicago”) would secure the award, hands down.

BEST ACTRESS

Who will win…

The triple threat catfight of Salma Hayek (“Frida”), Nicole Kidman (“The Hours”) and Julianne Moore (“Far from Heaven”) will cancel out Renee Zellweger’s song and dance (“Chicago”) and Diane Lane’s disgraceful turn in “Unfaithful.”

Who should win…

Obviously not Lane. Kidman’s about to wear out her welcome, and Moore is deserving of a win, but just barely. Hayek and Zellweger have broken through expectations for two of the best female performances of the year, but Hayek more so than Zellweger.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Who will win…

Ed Harris (“The Hours”) should be destined for another disappointment, but his only true competition is Chris Cooper (“Adaptation”). They’re in a brawl where Christopher Walken (“Catch Me if You Can”) and Paul Newman (“Road to Perdition”) are powerless, but John C. Reilly (“Chicago”) could slip through on an off chance.

Who should win…

Cooper for sure. He’s the man this year, no doubt. But note that Reilly is finally getting the attention he deserves for his overall efforts. Don’t be surprised to see him take Oscar someday.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Who will win…

Underdog Queen Latifah is quite possibly a force to be reckoned with for “Chicago.” Kathy Bates (“About Schmidt”) and Julianne Moore (“The Hours”) won’t cut it. Perennial favorite Meryl Streep is likely to repeat her Golden Globes win, but Catherine Zeta-Jones could punch through for “Chicago.”

Who should win…

Streep should clean up, but as long as either her, Latifah or Zeta-Jones take it, there won’t be any complaints here.

BEST DIRECTOR

Who will win…

Politics and tradition will render Pedro Almodovar (“Hable Con Ella”), Stephen Daldry (“The Hours”) and Roman Polanski (“The Pianist”) helpless. Martin Scorcese’s (“Gangs of New York”) reputation for desperately deserving Oscar might put him over someone who truly deserves the win, Rob Marshall for “Chicago.” It’ll be one bad-ass fight.

Who should win…

Scorcese shouldn’t win for his lesser work, so scratch him out. Marshall should, and probably will, win for not just great work, but flawless work. Too bad Chris Columbus couldn’t get a nomination for his Marshall-esque work in “Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets.” It’s easy to take for granted what it took to craft a story and the fantasy world around it, so Columbus is destined for modest recognition outside of Oscar competition.