Oscar forecast: deserving nominees will lose out again

Opinion by Jason Bretz

It?s time for another evening of misplaced rewards and pop culture iconography at he 74th annual Academy Awards, hosted by Whoopi Goldberg March 24 at the Kodak Theatre in Los Angeles. With film in 2001 being dominated by wizards and a mad mathematician, the evening will surely end with the true best of the year losing out to another group of unworthy winners.

The category of best actress is this year?s most unexciting competition. With last year?s Oscar going to Julia Roberts? cleavage instead of Ellen Burstyn?s piercing vulnerability, maybe the academy finally wants to recognize the best actress in the category. With a completely ridiculous nomination for Renee Zellweger, and with Halle Berry and Nicole Kidman receiving more than enough praise by their nominations alone, this race will most likely come down to Sissy Spacek and Judi Dench. Spacek anchored “In the Bedroom” in her role of a mother facing the effects of her son?s affair with an older woman, but the life that Dench breathed into “Iris” with her uncomfortably realistic portrayal of a woman being torn apart by Alzheimer?s disease should send her home with her second Oscar.

The best actor category could be one of this year?s make-up calls. In 1992, Al Pacino landed his first Oscar for his seemingly endless trek as a suicidal blind man, while Denzel Washington won nothing for his transformation into Malcolm X. Pacino had produced so many incredible roles that the academy felt it was time to reward him, regardless of Washington?s clearly superior performance. This Sunday?s show will probably follow a similar path.

While Sean Penn brought us to tears for a couple of hours with his almost Oscar-worthy performance as a developmentally disabled father, and Russell Crowe managed to create an opportunity to win a second undeserved statue, the Oscar should finally be headed into the hands of Denzel Washington. His ability to unleash his dark side and the unexpected sincerity in his violent portrayal of a corrupt narcotics officer in “Training Day” should give Washington his first Oscar for a leading role.

The real loser this year will be Will Smith; although Washington has been the more deserving actor on a few occasions, this time he will be on the receiving end of a statue gone astray. Smith?s recreation of the great Muhammad Ali makes Washington?s Alonzo look like playtime. The former Fresh Prince of Bel Air has transcended his years as a rap star, a sitcom star and a cute, sometimes amusing movie star to turn in the most convincing performance based on an American icon since … well, Washington?s Malcolm X.

In the realm of best director, the competition will shy away from the mainstream success of “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring” and “A Beautiful Mind.” Instead, the race will most likely be between two film legends that have shaped American cinema without ever receiving an Oscar. David Lynch and Robert Altman are the only two directors in this category that deserve to be there, and with Baz Luhrmann somehow being left out for his genius Moulin Rouge, these two should have only each other to worry about. Though Lynch?s “Mulholland Drive” is the more deserving piece of directing, the academy could be looking to reward Altman, who has produced a lifetime of work that will be forever taught in film classes around the country. If only the academy had been thinking this way in 1990 when they gave the Oscar to Kevin Costner for his muddled western, and left Martin Scorsese empty handed after he turned in the masterpiece “Goodfellas.”

In the cherished category of best picture, which has been tainted since the 1977 ceremony that honored the ripped-off story of Rocky Balboa instead of the brilliantly original story of Travis Bickle, the ceremony will probably stick to its tradition of rewarding the biggest blockbuster. Of the five films nominated, only “A Beautiful Mind” and “The Fellowship of the Ring” are in positions to take home the prestigious award. Though “Gosford Park” and “In the Bedroom” are great films, neither have enough power to bring down the heavyweights. The underdog of this category is “Moulin Rouge,” one of the most creatively inspired films of the year. Still, its freshness is not enough to stop the two powerhouses. In the end, look for Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh and Barrie M. Osborne, the producers of “Fellowship,” to take the stage and accept their statues.

The disappointment is inevitable. The arguments will ensue following every announced winner. But movies are magic, and next year we will sit and wait and watch for the next batch of injustices to be passed on to American film by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.