As Iraq began operations to take back Mosul from the Islamic State (IS) group on Tuesday, an American professor and commentator on the modern Middle East spoke on Sacramento State’s campus to discuss the views of the presidential nominees on the Middle East.
Juan Cole, a professor at the University of Michigan, said that while Hillary Clinton’s plan to defeat IS is not feasible, Donald Trump’s “does not make sense.”
Trump said that one of his plans as president would be to “bomb the s— out of (IS).” Cole said he is not convinced this tactic would work, citing the Vietnam War.
“The generals kept coming saying, ‘Give us a few more troops and a few more planes and we will win this thing,’ ” Cole said. “Well, it turns out the Vietcong had tunnels, and when they heard B-52s engines, they just went underground.”
Cole said that another problem with bombing is that there are civilians in areas like Mosul, and they would die alongside members of IS. Cole said that such a strategy would aggravate tensions in the Middle East.
One of Trump’s arguments is that IS would not have had funding if the United States had not ended its occupation of Iraq and its power over their oil.
“It used to be, ‘To the victor belong the spoils,” Trump said during a forum on NBC. “Now, there was no victor there, believe me. There was no victor. But I always said: Take the oil.”
Cole said that he doesn’t understand what Trump means when he says this.
“How would you take their oil?” Cole said. “Would you, like, try to pump all several billion barrels and bring it here?”
Cole said that Trump has contradictory positions. For example, he said that IS and the Ba’ath regime of Syria should fight it out, but then said during a debate that U.S. forces should enter Syria.
Cole spent a majority of the presentation discussing the origins of IS, which gained followers among insurgents who fought the 2003-11 occupation of Iraq.
Clinton’s policies were also put to scrutiny during Cole’s speech. Clinton said that she does not want ground troops in the Middle East, despite the fact there are already special operations troops and trainers already stationed there.
Clinton’s plan to use extensive airstrikes against IS was also criticized for the same reason as Trump’s strategy to use carpet bombing.
“The only time you want to use extensive strikes that might be successful (is) if you’re giving air support to a ground infantry operation,” Cole said.
Clinton wants to remove Syrian president Bashar al-Assad from office after defeating IS, but doing so would create a vacuum of power in Syria.
“One danger of doing that is the fundamentalists would sweep in Damascus,” Cole said. “You would get people who are, if not Al-Qaeda, aligned with Al-Qaeda, Al-Qaeda-like, walking and talking and quaking like Al-Qaeda in control of Syria.”
Devin Craigg, who attended the lecture, said that it gave him context for when he’s talking about the Middle East with others, and that he was not surprised about Cole’s assessment of Trump’s proposals.
Sac State professor Bahman Fozouni said the regional powers such as Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have power to shape the Middle East.
“I’m not sure what Syria is going to look like,” Fozouni said. “I’m not as optimistic that Syria Humpty Dumpty can be put back together.”
“(Bombing) is not particularly effective against guerrilla fights,” Craigg said. “Which what ISIL is.”
