Only the St. Louis Rams could mess up a sure thing. Only the Rams could pass on arguably the best defensive prospect in a generation for a quarterback with durability questions.

University of Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford is the man in question.

I have followed the NFL draft religiously every year since 1997. While the Rams have had some great picks in that time &- Orlando Pace, Torry Holt, Steven Jackson &- there has also been a fair share of busts &- Trung Canidate, Jimmy Kennedy, Tye Hill.

However, one thing has remained consistent &- the Rams have not drafted a quarterback in the first round since 1963 when they took Terry Baker from Oregon State University.

Bradford, the 2008 Heisman Trophy winner, went back to the Sooners for the 2009 season only to hurt his shoulder in the team’s first game. He rehabbed, came back and hurt the same shoulder a few weeks later.

This is the guy the Rams are looking at? A guy who has suffered two major shoulder injuries last season? Oy vey!

I understand teams aren’t supposed to pass on potential franchise quarterbacks, but Bradford is not that guy. If he had entered the draft last year as the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, he would have been a projected top-15 pick. However, he decided to return to Oklahoma for his junior season.

So, how does a guy go from being a top-15 pick, play two games while getting hurt on two separate occasions, to catapulting to the top of the draft?

Because the Rams are that dumb.

The Sooners used a lot of spread formations, something that isn’t prevalent in the NFL. Bradford thrived in these situations, when he was healthy. While he is deadly accurate, his arm strength is just a tick above average.

Bradford’s passing skill set compares favorably to Alex Smith of the San Francisco 49ers.Smith, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2005 draft, came from the University of Utah and impressed scouts and critics in the offseason, much like Bradford. When it came time to actually play football, Smith buckled under the pressure and his inexperience showed.

A guy the Niners passed on that year was local favorite Aaron Rodgers from Cal. Rodgers, who played in a pro-style system, lasted until pick No. 24 where the Green Bay Packers grabbed him to be Brett Favre’s eventual replacement.

In the last two years, Rodgers has averaged 4,236 yards passing, 64.1 percent pass completion and 29 touchdowns. Smith, on the other hand, has a 37 touchdowns, 43 interceptions and 56.3 percent completion rate &- for his career. It’s clear who was the better pick..

That’s not to say Bradford couldn’t go on and have a good NFL career, but he is not worthy of No. 1 overall selection.

Last season, the Rams flirted with drafting University of Southern California quarterback Mark Sanchez &- a move I was in favor of.

Unsurprisingly, the Rams passed on Sanchez, who played in a pro-style system at USC and took the New York Jets to the AFC Championship game in his rookie season, thus forcing the team to draft a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick this year, as it’s clear the team passed on a franchise quarterback for the second consecutive season &- see: Ryan, Matt.

Peyton Manning didn’t have these concerns coming out of the University of Tennessee in 1998. Even his brother Eli Manning didn’t have these concerns in 2004. Both were prototypical No. 1 picks and franchise quarterbacks with no injury concerns. Bradford is being hyped as a franchise quarterback because this year’s quarterback class is one of the weakest in recent memory.

The NFL draft is an inexact science and risky proposition, which makes drafting a quarterback No. 1 even riskier.

With the April 4 trade of Donovan McNabb from the Philadelphia Eagles to the Washington Redskins, Bradford to the Rams is virtually a lock.

There had been some scuttlebutt about the Redskins interested in trading up to grab Bradford with the top pick, but the “Skins acquiring McNabb quashes that theory.

And besides, the Rams probably would have been inclined to take Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen &- a guy even less deserving of a top-10 selection.

The man the Rams should draft, but won’t, is Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.Suh was the first defensive player invited to the Heisman Trophy presentation since Charles Woodson won it in 1997. He also won the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, Outland Trophy and was named the Associated Press’ player of the year &- the first defensive player ever to win the award.

Suh is a game-changing talent. Teams would be forced to scheme against his all-world ability and skill. That is something the Rams’ defense has been missing for years.

Not only would this give the Rams the best defensive line prospect since hall-of-fame hopeful Warren Sapp, but would make up for the poor decisions to draft defensive tackles in the past such as Damione Lewis and Adam Carriker.

Ultimately, it would put them in position to draft from a bevy of great quarterback prospects next year &- University of Washington’s Jake Locker, Stanford’s Andrew Luck and the University of Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett &- all of whom are more naturally talented and less injury-prone than the brittle Bradford.

Bradford’s shoulder injuries and concussion he suffered in his freshman season are reasons to be concerned and leery of choosing him No. 1.

But that makes way too much sense to happen. This is the Rams we’re talking about.I guess I shouldn’t be surprised, though. The Rams have made terrible decisions in the draft in recent years; and it looks like it will continue April 22 at about 4:40 p.m., when the Rams make Bradford the No. 1 pick.

Dustin Nosler can be reached at [email protected]