Wide open NL West should look familiar in 2012

The outcome of the NL West race could depend largely on the ability of San Francisco Giants second baseman Freddy Sanchez and teammate Buster Posey to stay healthy. (Nhat V. Meyer/San Jose Mercury News/MCT)

Alex Grotewohl

Spring training has officially begun, and for fans of the National Pastime, this is the season of perpetual hope. And unlike virtually every other division in baseball this spring, the National League West doesn’t have a clear frontrunner.

No one signed any big names or obvious game-changers, and all the notable additions have come via trade. It looks like this division could again be decided by whose big hitters have the most fragile fibulas.

NL West standings at the end of the 2012 season

1. Arizona Diamondbacks

Last year’s champions are poised to again make a convincing run at the division title in 2012. The most well-balanced crew in the West last year, the D-Backs made the biggest impact move of the winter by trading prospects to get Oakland Atheltics’ young gun Trevor Cahill, as well as some bullpen help.

Arizona fans have to be excited about its team’s lack of any glaring weak spots. The back end of the Diamondbacks’ rotation is anchored by the burgeoning right arm of Josh Collmenter, whose 3.38 ERA and knack for keeping runners off the basepaths earned him fifth place in Rookie of the Year voting last year.

Arizona also added a home run bat in outfielder Jason Kubel, and is sporting impressive defensive depth all over the field.

Weakness: Arizona is missing an impact base-stealer at the top of the lineup and may be relying on the flash-in-the-pan second baseman Aaron Hill or perennially shrug-inducing Chris Young to fill the role. Justin Upton and a healthy Stephen Drew should provide enough RBI power, but they won’t be able to do much if no one can set the table in front of them.

Also, if they are relying on 42-year-old free agent pickup Takashi Saito to nail down the seventh and eighth innings on a daily basis, they may be hitting the trade market come July.

2. San Francisco Giants

Last year, the Giants’ offense was one big, painful exercise in futility. With one of the lowest run productions in the game, San Francisco had one job this offseason: go get some production for the middle of the lineup.

It failed.

As far as pitching staffs go, the Giants are still perhaps the best in the game. Beyond the two Cy Young-caliber throwers in Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, the bullpen remains fantastic from top to bottom with Sergio Romo and Javier Lopez providing plenty of set-up ability for All-Star closer Brian Wilson and his admittedly tiresome facial hair.

The lineup, though, is still essentially nothing but question marks from one through nine. Giants’ manager Bruce Bochy said third baseman Pablo Sandoval has regained some of the excess body fat he lost before last season (remember Operation: Panda?).

With the loss of midseason acquisition Carlos Beltran to St. Louis via free agency, the Giants are back to hoping Nate Schierholtz can finally realize his potential in right field, which is a spot where most teams expect a big offensive producer.

Most Giants’ fans are excited about the returns of Freddy Sanchez and Buster Posey to the top of the lineup. But the same fans also know both players, especially the former, are a strong breeze away from the disabled list. And the Giants simply don’t have the depth to back them up.

Who knows why the front office didn’t want to spend any money this winter? The pitching will keep the team in it until the end, but the fact is San Francisco is one injury away from knocking itself out of contention.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

Even though the organization was shaken to the core last year by ownership issues, the Dodgers are poised to be a surprise contender in a NL West.

Despite the loss of long-time rotation anchor Hiroki Kuroda, the starting five for LA is strong, with the additions of Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano bringing up the rear. Reigning NL Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw is one of the best in the game, and somehow managed to win 21 games last year even though his team was generally weak.

The offense is centered around triple crown threat Matt Kemp, who was absolutely robbed of his rightful place as NL MVP in 2011. Perhaps with no one else in baseball is that kind of power paired with that kind of speed and defensive prowess. He’s joined in the outfield by home run-threat Andre Ethier, whose usually stellar production fell off last year since he was playing injured. A healthy Ethier will go a long way toward bolstering an offense with a few holes in it.

Young phenom Dee Gordon, who put together an incredible 24 stolen bases in just 56 games in 2011, will be the team’s primary shortstop. It should be interesting to see if he can continue to develop.

The Dodgers remain weak in left field and catcher, two positions they haven’t really been able to fill in years. A disappointing year from former Giant Juan Uribe didn’t help last season, and he will have to rebound in a big way if the Dodgers hope to compete in 2012.

The wild card for LA is its bullpen. Rookie closer Javy Guerra looked good in limited service last year, but remains a point of uncertainty. Setup man Kenley Jansen also had flashes of brilliance and moments of pain in 2011, and is part of a generally really young ‘pen. If they can find a way to lock down the strong starts of Kershaw, Ted Lilly and Chad Billingsley, the Dodgers could fight their way into contention, especially if San Francisco has serious injury problems.

4. Colorado Rockies

From here on out, the remaining two NL West teams are in rebuilding mode, and it’s a toss-up as to who manages to stay out of the cellar.

The Rockies are an interesting case. They have one of the premier offensive players in the game in Troy Tulowitzki, to whom they recently promised a king’s ransom over roughly the next century. They also sport left fielder Carlos Gonzalez, who signed a long-term contract after a stellar 2010 and proceeded to fall off considerably last year. They hope he can return to his former brilliance considering he’ll be making $20 million per year by the time his deal expires after 2017.

But beyond those two players, Colorado won’t bring a lot to the table this year. Without ace Ubaldo Jimenez, the rotation is led by Jorge de la Rosa, whose career 4.90 ERA is thoroughly uninspiring. Longtime first baseman Todd Helton is getting to that age where he’s a shadow of his former self. Third base is held by trash-heap pickup Casey Blake.

The Rockies hope veteran Rafael Betancourt can fill a closer role he’s never had to play before. The rest of the bullpen is young and inspires no confidence.

The boys in purple could easily lose 90-95 games in 2012.

5. San Diego Padres

Last, and I suppose least, is the San Diego Padres.

The Pads find themselves in the truest rebuilding mode in the division, having just unloaded perhaps their two biggest stars in closer Heath Bell and ace starter Mat Latos.

The remainder of their pitching staff is pretty weak. They added closer Huston Street, who is coming off the worst year of his career with Colorado. Also joining the mix is the annually disappointing Edinson Volquez, who has gotten worse every season since his breakout rookie year in 2008.

In order to stay relevant, they’ll depend on new left fielder Carlos Quentin and veteran second baseman Orlando Hudson. Both of these guys are still decent, but won’t be nearly enough to keep San Diego in the hunt much past June.

There you have it, folks. Everything you need to know to be an expert on the western division of the Senior Circuit. If you’ll notice, it looks a lot like the final standings of last year.

Alex Grotewohl can be reached at [email protected].