Minority enrollment may skyrocket nationwide
September 22, 2006
Non-white students may still be in the minority at American colleges, but the rate at which they’re enrolling far surpasses their white counterparts. Statisticians at the U.S. Department of Education predict that while nationwide college enrollment will continue to grow, among minorities, there’s going to be a boom.
By 2015, enrollment in American colleges will grow 42 percent for Latinos, 30 percent for Native Americans, 28 percent for Asian Americans and 27 percent for blacks, according to a report from the National Center for Education Statistics. In the same period, white enrollment is only slated to grow by 6 percent.
According to Thomas Snyder, a statistician at the Department of Education, the projections only echo decades of population and enrollment trends: Rates of minority enrollment are not just now beginning to outpace those of whites, but have been doing so for many years, Snyder said.
Experts are unsure how the upswing in minority enrollment will affect the University of Pennsylvania.
Though Penn has been a predominantly white institution from the very beginning, its elite status should also mean that it has the resources to adapt to a more diverse America, said Sean Vereen, associate director of the Center for Africana Studies.
Universities located in areas of greater population growth — especially minority population growth — are predicted to be most affected.
Enrollment among non-resident-aliens is also projected to rise 34 percent. This will all add up to a total enrollment increase of 15 percent.
The report also contained information on teachers, spending and elementary- and secondary-school enrollment.
It report used demographic data from the U.S. Census, fertility rates and past precedent to predict future enrollment rates, Snyder said.
Laura Perna, a professor in the Graduate School of Education, said she hoped some of the increases in minority enrollment were due to recruitment efforts aimed specifically at minorities.
Sarita Brown, the president of the non-profit organization Excelencia in Education, which works with Latinos in higher education, said the projections shouldn’t automatically be taken as fact.
She said the vast increases in many minority populations will not necessarily translate to increases in enrollment.
The nation’s large Latino population represents a great number of potential college students, Brown said, but unless colleges expand recruitment and need-based financial aid, potential students is all they’ll ever be.
I think it’s exciting that we could have this great growth, [but it’s] not a foregone conclusion, Brown said.
The annual report included separate projections for different ethnicities for the first time this year, although the Department of Education has been gathering such data since the 1970s. Their inclusion this year was based on numerous requests, Snyder said.
Individual campuses are going to choose to respond in different ways, Snyder said.