Alex Grotewohl

Giants fans have been subjected to a lot of uncertainty in recent weeks.

Between a new surgery for Brian Wilson and a few decent starts in a row by Barry Zito, the San Francisco faithful can be excused for not knowing which way is up.

And to add fuel to the flame, long-time ace and resident strikeout king Tim Lincecum is right now the team’s worst starter.

Lincecum is off to the worst start of his career. His ERA is up to 8.20 and he’s allowing about two baserunners per inning on average.

Needless to say, the Bay Area is on the verge of growing restless. Is there reason to be worried?

The big concern so far is the velocity on Lincecum’s fastball. In 2008, the year in which he won his first Cy Young award, his heater averaged 94.1 mph. Last year, that number was down to 92.2 mph. And in his season opener this year, his fastball was all the way down to 90. Obviously, something’s wrong.

Lincecum’s strikeouts, the bread and butter of his effectiveness, have largely been due to the contrast between his fastball and his changeup. Whereas in years past the difference in velocity between the two pitches was about 9 mph, according to Fangraphs, that difference is down to 7 mph so far this year.

So he could still be successful throwing 90 mph, but he’ll have to adjust his change-up accordingly, or introduce more movement to his repertoire.

Timmy’s punch-outs have also been on the decline. Between 2008 and 2010, Lincecum led the National League in both total strikeouts and strikeouts per nine innings pitched, although in truth 2010 was significantly less impressive than the previous two years.

As his velocity has dropped, so have the strikeout totals. He struck out just 9.1 batters per nine innings last year, which is still really good for your average pitcher. But for Timmy, it’s a career low – down from 10.5 in ‘08. His average walks also climbed to 3.6 last season.

What could be the cause of this decline? The most obvious answer is wear and tear somewhere in his joints. Ever since he came into the league, the talking heads have been speculating as to the stress his unusual motion puts on his arm. This, combined with his much-publicized roller coaster ride of weight gain and loss, could be taking its toll finally.

  This would not only explain his decreased velocity, but his desire to stop throwing his slider, which he threw for the first time on Monday in New York. Until this year, he had been using the slider more often each season, which, if it was in fact hurting his arm, could explain why this decline in performance seems progressive.

I don’t expect Lincecum to maintain an ERA of 8.20 throughout the year. But if he keeps getting worse, the Giants may have to decide to address the problem somehow or trade him and make it someone else’s concern.

Alex Grotewohl can be reached at [email protected].

Joe Fleming

A three-time All Star, a Cy Young Award winner and one of the highest paid pitchers in the history of Major League Baseball – is also a huge disappointment. 

San Francisco Giants pitcher Barry Zito has gone from the elite-level of pitchers to the bottom of the barrel. 

What Zito apparently had during his time with the Oakland A’s, he subsequently lost as a member of the Giants. Zito was well known for his sharp-snapping 12-to-6 curveball, then blowing a fastball past batters. 

The ability for Zito to keep hitters off-balance was a huge part of his game. Now with an average fastball of approximately 83 mph, the days of him sniffing 90 mph are long gone – as is the faith of many Giants fans he will return to form. 

But this season has started surprisingly different for the 33-year-old yoga master. In his three games started, Zito has earned one win with no losses. But it was an impressive complete-game shutout against division rival Colorado Rockies stunning doubtful fans. The shutout helped Zito achieve a ridiculously low 1.71 ERA for the short season so far, but will his new-found dominance continue? Ehh, no. 

Zito lives and dies on two things: his ability to keep batters off-balance and having pinpoint command of all his pitches. 

An example of good-Zito, bad-Zito was in the 2011 opening week series against the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 3. In the first inning of his first start of the season, he gave up a leadoff single to Rafael Furcal, a triple to Jamey Carroll and two batters later he left a changeup over the heart of the plate to Matt Kemp. Kemp smacked the ball into the late afternoon sky, which headed out toward the famous Hollywood sign giving the Dodgers a 3-0 lead. 

“I missed a couple of pitches into Furcal and Kemp, and that’s where I got hurt,” Zito told reporters after the game. 

After the first inning damage, Zito settled down to pitch five scoreless frames – hence, good-Zito. It’s all about his command. When he is on his game, Zito can nibble the corners of the plate better than most pitchers. But when he misses his location, even by a half an inch, it gets blasted. 

Another thing that makes Zito effective is the fact that the velocity of his pitches are slower than what scouts consider average, which is 90 mph. Zito’s 83 mph fastball and 71 mph curveball keep batters leaning on their front foot. As a result, the ball is generally hit poorly without the batter being able to get his legs into the swing.  Offspeed or junk pitches coupled with solid command can prove to be challenging for batters. However, it comes with a warning. These pitchers have a much smaller margin for error. 

In order for Zito to have a successful 2012 season, he will need to avoid innings where his command lacks precision placement. 

He may never rise to an All Star level again, but he could avoid being a liability.

Joe Fleming can be reached at [email protected].