Predictions are predictable in NEXT: Trends for the Near Future
February 21, 2001
Books that purport to tell the future are usually either so full of doom and gloom they are too depressing to read? or so wild in their predictions that they get dismissed without much serious consideration.
But “NEXT: Trends for the Near Future” offers an interesting blend of the disastrous and delightful in its claims on what we can expect to see before this book is out of print.
Many of the predictions are, well, predictable: a “smart refrigerator” that orders groceries for you, marketers focusing on an elder culture instead of the young, the death of privacy. But some of the authors? suggestions are more startling, but do seem plausible, if unlikely.
In a section called “Family Styles,” the authors say women are likely to start returning to running households again, though how that transformation takes place and at what cost to both the women and society is unclear.
“Surveys show that a smaller percentage of young mothers are working today that in 1987,” the book says. Education of the children, and children?s well-being are cited as the main reasons for the trend.
In looking at the future of media, Matathia and Salzman give some comfort to authors who are worried about the death of the printed word. The authors trace the new technologies for books and publishing and point out that publishing itself seems to be stronger than ever. “Media is not a zero sum game,” Paul Saffo, a director of the Institute for the Future in Menlo Park is quoted as saying. “Just because a new medium arrives doesn?t mean an old medium dies out. We still have writing in an age of word processing; we still have reading in an age of video.”
The American desire to be entertained ? 24 hours per day ? is also examined in some detail in a chapter that also looks at how gambling is growing as a form of recreation across the country as it has gone from an illicit, hidden activity to one endorsed by many states.
At times the writing in “NEXT: Trends for the Near Future” can be stiff and less exciting than the topics. And the sections dealing with advertising, business and the concept of branding (products, not cattle) could be skimmed without great risk.
But on balance, “NEXT: Trends for the Near Future” is a worthwhile read, if only to see how much of the authors? predictions seem at all reasonable.
“NEXT: Trends for the Near Future” is available on the browsing shelf of the CSU, Sacramento library.